Game over: iPhone 5 release date sees third to half of public in line

by Timmy Falcon

A third to a half of the entire U.S. population says they’ll buy an iPhone 5 once its release date arrives, a move which screams “game over” in the ongoing iPhone-Android wars if the stats turn out to be true. Statistics are like cosmetics in that you can always ones which make your argument appear to look better than it really does, but a pair of independently conducted studies reveal that either a little more than a third or a little more than a half of Americans surveyed plan to make the iPhone 5 theirs. If words equal actions in this case, it’ll represent a significant shift in the current marketshare ratio between the iPhone/iOS and Android platforms, the latter of which has been growing faster even as the former retains the lead. So how is the iPhone 5, which hasn’t even been revealed yet and only exists in terms of being “whatever new iPhone Apple brings out to replace the iPhone 4″ already gobbling up so many customers? It’s arguably the same mindshare the iPhone has had all along, and the iPhone 5 just now finally represents the point at which mindshare becomes marketshare.

These numbers are not a representation of how what percentage of current iPhone users plan to upgrade, or how many current users of other smartphones plan to switch. This is out of the entire population, which is notable in that as many people still have yet to buy their first smartphone as already have. One third to one half of the population buying an iPhone 5 would suddenly dwarf the current marketshare of Android, BlackBerry, and Windows Phone 7 combined. It would give the iPhone 5 the kind of overwhelmingly dominating marketshare which Apple’s other iProducts like the iPad, iPod, and iTunes Store already enjoy. And therein lies the explanation as to what’s really going on here: the iPhone should have had majority marketshare all along, and has been primarily held back by certain key issues which will be resolved by the time of the iPhone 5 / iOS 5 era.

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First and foremost is the iPhone 5 arriving on Verizon and AT&T on the same release date. The Verizon iPhone 4 was a low-key, late-arriving bandaid a few months ago designed to keep Verizon customers from defecting to AT&T to get the iPhone; the move was all about saving Verizon from losing marketshare which was why Verizon handled the introduction and the bulk of the marketing. But now it’s Apple’s turn to benefit from the Verizon-Apple partnership, as the iPhone 5 arrives in position to scoop up all those loyal Verizon customers who bought a Droid last year because it was all Verizon offered, have since realized it’s not a suitable iPhone alternative, and are now back to wanting the iPhone they’ve wanted all along. The iPhone 5 is the first “new” iPhone to hit Verizon, and represents the jumping off point at which weary Droid users see themselves finally joining the pack. Verizon also hopes that the Verizon iPhone 5 will be the point at which T-Mobile and Sprint customers who’ve grown tired of waiting for the iPhone to come to them, or who’ve soured on their carriers’ in-house Android phones, decide to jump to Verizon for the iPhone 5.

There’s still no official word as to whether Apple will make that last part moot by bringing the iPhone 5 to Sprint and T-Mobile, although the expansion to Verizon made it clear that Apple no longer views carrier exclusivity as a good thing. Regardless, however, the iPhone 5 will have one thing which the iPhone 4 didn’t: a clean slate at launch. Even before the iPhone 4 was introduced, the public had already seen a prototype out of context with no chance for Apple to explain what it was all about. And within days of launch, Apple-hating geeks had conspired to concoct an “iPhone 4 antenna issue” which didn’t really exist and was instead merely an exploit of the minor pressure points which all cellphones have. Nonetheless, an unsuspecting public was tricked into believing the iPhone 4 had an “antenna problem” and many of them opted to skip it out of fear, despite the fact that everyone who owns an iPhone 4 knows there is no antenna issue and never was. Regardless, the result is that a significant chunk of the population who would have made the iPhone 4 their first iPhone instead decided to wait for the one which came after, which means that the iPhone 5 has another segment of those who will buy sight unseen beyond just those who’ve been holding out for carrier reasons.

Are there other reasons why the iPhone 5 is already so popular even before it officially exists? Sure. Yet another study from last year showed that the Android platform had a planned twenty-eight percent retention rate, with the other seventy-two percent planning to get something different for their next phone. As such, the overall consumer dissatisfaction with Android has the iPhone benefiting once again, as it’s the other mainstream smartphone platform. And with the iPhone 5 seeing release date within a month or two, it’ll be the specific beneficiary. This is all, of course, before Apple even introduces the new iPhone. If its features, specs, and design are appealing, those planned buyer numbers could climb even higher. Apple has been handed a golden opportunity with the iPhone 5, and must simply not blow it. Here’s more on the iPhone 5.

Star Wars: Verizon iPhone as nerdy and science-fictionish as Droid?

The Verizon iPhone will be a mainstream smartphone best marketed to mainstream (non-geek) consumers, just as has always been the case with the existing iPhone. But with Verizon’s penchant for running TV ads for its own Droid smartphones which are nothing short of one long geek-pander episode, one has to wonder whether Verizon will be able to develop the mainstream chops to market the Verizon iPhone effectively. To large extent, the mere fact that Verizon is offering the iPhone will be enough to drive sales, as Verizon customers have been waiting years for this and they know what an iPhone is and does despite however Verizon ultimately chooses to market it. But with Verizon’s smartphone TV ads up to this point having been along the lines of “Please don’t buy this unless you’re a technology geek,” you have to wonder. After all, this is the carrier which named its flagship in-house smartphone after a Star Wars character. Can you get any more nerdy and science-fictionish than that?

Then again, it wasn’t Verizon who came up with the “Android” name in the first place. And it’s possible that Verizon’s marketing department, upon realizing that the Android-based phone they were selling was based on an open-source operating system unsuitable for anyone but science fiction nerds, decided to go ahead and play the motif to the max. The Droid, by virtue of the operating system Verizon adopted for it, was only ever going to appeal to geeks and tinkerers anyway. So why even try to market it to anyone else? In fact, after spending about five minutes back in 2009 attempting to promote the Droid as an iPhone competitor (by name), Verizon backed off and instead started running ads full of Star Wars-like sound effects and science fiction-themed CGI graphics, as if to say “this phone is for geeks and we know it.” It’s almost as if Verizon didn’t realize that, even with the Droid only being suitable for geeks, it would still sell to non-geeks who were simply looking for the closest pseudo-iPhone on Verizon’s roster.

Hmm. It’s clear in hindsight that Verizon marketed the Droid in a very self-limiting and self-defeating manner, and yet did well with it anyway (in terms of sales, if not nearly so well in terms of user satisfaction). Verizon’s first rough draft at an iPhone ad has come in the form of its iPad ad, which steers far away from science fiction nerdiness and instead attempts to be Apple-esque: a laid back non-geek consumer sitting casually, with a largely white background. Then again, the ad does ultimately show a guy sitting in his living room on a five dollar plastic patio chair, so Verizon isn’t so much capturing that Apple cool factor so much as attempt to emulate something it doesn’t fully understand. But at least Verizon appears to understand that “For the geeks, by the geeks” science fiction sound effects and other such nerdy foolishness are no way to market an Apple product, which suggests that Verizon will at least attempt to market the Verizon iPhone as the mainstream product it is, as opposed to the Star Wars derivative nerd-phone which nerds already irrevocably despise it for not being.

Verizon+AT&T iPhone 4 will put the Droid platform to bed in 2011

The short story of where we are at the end of 2010 in the smartphone world is this: Apple offered the not-yet-launched iPhone exclusively to Verizon, who turned it down, and so Apple gave the iPhone exclusively to AT&T. The iPhone became a massive hit, which had Verizon regretting having turned it down – and AT&T regretting the negative impact all those millions of iPhones had on its cellular network. Verizon reacted by launching a competing psuedo-iPhone based on the Android operating system, which was no more designed for consumer usage than Linux on the desktop, but it was the best available so Verizon went with it (and so did Sprint, for that matter). Verizon’s Android-based phone, dubbed the Droid, sold well to those Verizon users who had wanted the iPhone but couldn’t get one through their carrier. That motivated Apple to get out of its exclusivity deal with AT&T, which AT&T was growing wary of anyway, and make plans to launch the iPhone on Verizon in early 2011 alongside the existing AT&T iPhone. And that gets us up to where we are now.

What happens next? Geeks who love the Android platform as much as they love their Linux will tell you that the Droid has already won. Verizon has shown that many or most mainstream folks would rather settle for a smartphone they don’t want (or sit pat for years with no smartphone at all) than switch to a carrier they don’t like in order to get the smartphone they do want. They’ll argue that Apple is only expanding the iPhone to multiple carriers in order to slow down Droid sales. And to an extent they’re right. The flaw in that argument, of course, is that with the iPhone’s arrival on Verizon, those same mainstream folks now have the option between the phone they actually want the phone they had up until now only been considering because it appeared to be a close-ish approximation of the phone they want. Given those two choices, it’s nearly a given that Verizon customers will opt for the phone they actually want. In the case of Verizon-using geeks, that’ll be the Droid. In the case of mainstream Verizon users, it’ll be the iPhone.

Which group is larger? Well, there’s a reason why they call it the mainstream. Mainstream Verizon customers who’ve spent 2010 debating whether to buy a Droid or wait for a possible Verizon iPhone will now opt for the Verizon iPhone. Some mainstream Verizon customers who’ve already bought a Droid but wanted an iPhone will now move to the iPhone once they’re ready for a new phone, while some others will decide they’re already far enough down that road in terms of Droid apps and such that they’ll choose to remain on it. But Droid users are nearly all on their first Droid, most of them having bought first one this year, which means they’re not nearly as entrenched in the Droid platform so as to be unwilling to walk away in favor of the Verizon iPhone they wanted all along.

If Apple had waited another year or two, and a Verizon iPhone might have had a significantly harder time gaining traction. Then again, a year or two ago, a Verizon iPhone would have had no competition at all. As it stands, the Verizon iPhone won’t claim all Verizon customers when it launches in early 2011, but it’ll claim most of the ones who ever had an interest in the iPhone in the first place. By the time it’s said and done, only the geeks will still be clinging to their Verizon Droid in large numbers; if anything, the largest concentration of remaining Android users will be with Sprint – and there’s nothing to say Apple can’t expand the iPhone in that direction as well, down the road. Just as long as it doesn’t wait too long. Here’s more on the Verizon iPhone.

Verizon iPhone is wanted by everyone except these three people

Everyone wants the Verizon iPhone to happen. Verizon customers who’ve been waiting for the iPhone are the most obvious beneficiaries. Existing iPhone users in the U.S. want the Verizon iPhone to happen because it gives them a choice of carriers, might make for a less-burdened AT&T network, and could even (gasp) spark competition between Verizon and AT&T. App developers want the Verizon iPhone to happen because it’ll shift more of Verizon’s customer base from basic cellphones onto smartphones. Verizon and Apple both want the Verizon iPhone to happen for obvious reasons.

So who doesn’t want a Verizon iPhone to come to market? Here are three people, well actually two people and one specific type of person, who represent the only people on the planet rooting against the arrival of a Verizon iPhone:

Google CEO Eric Schmidt. It’s still not clear (perhaps not even to him) what exactly Google stands to gain from trying to get its free open-source Android operating system into as many smartphones as possible. Perhaps it’s merely an advertising real estate ploy, or perhaps there’s more to it. But the arrival of a Verizon iPhone is nothing short of terrible news for the continued growth prospects of the Android platform, as many buyers of Android phones are more than willing to admit that they only bought one because they wanted an iPhone but couldn’t get one from their carrier of choice.

Android fanatics. Tech geeks who’ve viewed the rise of products like the iPhone and iPod, based purely around mainstream ease of use instead of an obtuse list of vaguely usable features, tend to see Apple as a threat to their way of life. Even many tech geeks who use a Mac computer love to brag about how the iPhone is a toy and they prefer the geek-oriented Android platform. Or at the least, they’ve hacked their iPhone beyond the point of recognizability – anything to differentiate themselves from mainstream tech users, even if it means using an inferior product (Android, Zune, etc) or mutilating their iPhone into something less usable (they’ve even come up with propaganda terms like “jailbreaking” for it, in the name of belittling anyone who buys an iPhone and uses it as intended).

Watching mainstream Verizon customers being forced into buying a Droid phone has become a spectator sport for tech geeks who’ve viewed the rise of the Android platform as a validation of their way of life. And they know that the launch of the Verizon iPhone will now give those mainstream Verizon customers to option to go with the iPhone they wanted in the first place. As many public geek meltdowns as we witnessed in 2010 across the internet, expect even more in 2011 once the Verizon iPhone puts a stop to rising Android marketshare.

Steve Ballmer. With his Windows, Internet Explorer, and Office products all losing marketshare, his Zune a total flop, and his years of failing to get Windows-based smartphones off the ground, it’s a good thing the Microsoft CEO has his Xbox gaming division doing so well. But even as Microsoft gears up to launch its Windows Phone 7 products this month, the mere independent confirmation of an impending Verizon iPhone has completely overshadowed Microsoft’s official smartphone announcements. And on top of it all, Microsoft founder Bill Gates was just (fictionally) depicted in The Social Network, with the entire premise of his appearance in the movie being that a Harvard student didn’t recognize him.

Verizon iPhone: Apple loses Droid standoff, wins in 2011 anyway

Apple has got to be kicking itself that it didn’t go ahead and put a Verizon iPhone on the market a year or two sooner. All potential partnerships require some form of compromise, whether in this case it be getting out of that exclusive AT&T contract or giving up the power over the carrier it thought it could wield through exclusivity, and it’s just not a move Apple was willing to make until now. And as Apple was continuing to deny Verizon the iPhone, Verizon fought back in the only way it could – it launched its own phone based on the Android platform. Apple had to know something like the Droid was coming, and yet still declined to just give Verizon what it really wanted. And it’s a mistake that Apple is now hoping to correct after the fact.

When rumors of the Verizon Droid first kicked up, I wrote that its success or failure would determine the terms under which the Verizon iPhone would eventually come to market. If the Droid flopped, then Verizon would have unwittingly proved how much it needed the iPhone and would then have to adopt any terms Apple wanted. If the Droid were a raging success, it would prove that Verizon didn’t need the iPhone, meaning that Apple would be the one bending over backwards to accept Verizon’s terms.

The reality of the Android in 2010 in general has been somewhere in between. The Droid has sold plenty well, as have other carrier-centric Android phones like the Sprint EVO, while non-carrier Android phones like the Nexus One have been a disaster. While the latter isn’t Verizon’s problem, the real issue is that outside the geekdom, most Android users will tell you that they only bought it because they couldn’t get an iPhone on their carrier, and that they’d still rather have an iPhone than the phone they’re using.

That’s about as soft a victory as Verizon can get. Racking up sales numbers for a product that buyers openly admit isn’t what they want? That leaves a company like Verizon with a tentative victory at best, as sob stories continue to mount from those Verizon customers who tried a Droid, realized how far away from being an iPhone substitute it really was, and then ended up moving to AT&T after all – after having previously refused to for years – just to get an iPhone.

That last part is likely why Verizon has agreed to the Verizon iPhone deal at all; clinging solely to the Droid strategy, and gambling that customers won’t defect to AT&T once they realize they’ve been sold a pseudo-iPhone bill of goods, is risky. But offering both the Droid and the iPhone, and letting customers decide, is foolproof.

Even though Droid sales represent a partial victory for Verizon at best, it’s fair to say that Apple was the “loser” in the Verizon-Apple standoff if there was one. The irony, though, is that by launching the Verizon iPhone now (or more accurately, a few months from now), Apple gets to win after all: with the iPhone and the Droid available side by side on the same carrier, anyone who isn’t living inside of a geek bubble knows that the typical mainstream consumer will choose the iPhone nine times out of ten – and so suddenly this becomes an Apple victory after all. The only real victim here, once the Verizon-iPhone partnership is consummated, might be Verizon’s pride, as the carrier married its public image quite closely to the soon-to-be-forgotten Droid. But then again, assuming Verizon got the upper hand financially in this deal by winning the multi-year standoff, it looks like Verizon will be able to weep all the way to the bank.

Apple: activating 230,000 new iPhone+iPad+iPods per day, Android counting upgrades

Apple CEO Steve Jobs started off today’s press event by pointing out the fact that his retired Apple co-founder Steve “Woz” Wozniak was in the audience. Jobs then went on to focus on a first topic that few were expecting – Apple retail stores in Europe| and China – before moving on to iOS 4, Apple’s mobile operating system. Jobs says Apple has shipped 120 million iOS devices, which include iPhone, iPad, and iPod touch. He also announced that Apple is activating 230,000 new devices every day, which is not only higher than the number Google is quoting about Android devices, but Jobs also said that he believes Google is cheating by including “activations” of upgrades.

Verizon iPhone: top eight reasons why it should (but won’t) happen in 2010

It’s 2010, and Apple is still refusing to take the money that Verizon, Sprint, and T-Mobile customers have been attempting to stuff into the company’s pockets, unless those users are willing to switch to AT&T. Textbook business strategy says you find a way to take their money before they give it to your competitor. But while it’s difficult to argue with Apple’s overwhelming success over the past decade, it’s never been one to do anything by the book. So here are the top reasons why a Verizon iPhone (and for good measure, a Sprint iPhone and a T-Mobile iPhone) really should be announced this week and brought to market in time for the 2010 holiday shopping season – but likely won’t…

1. These aren’t the Droids you’re looking for. What, you thought anyone (outside of hardcore geeks) actually cares about the Verizon Droid for the geeks-only Android platform? Of course not. The only reason Verizon customers are paying attention to the Droid at all is because they want an iPhone but aren’t willing to switch to AT&T just to make it happen, and from a distance, if you squint real hard, Verizon’s Droid sorta kinda starts to look like a suitable fake iPhone. It’s bad business for Apple to refuse to take Verizon customers’ money, forcing them to buy a Droid instead. It’s also cruel.

2. Why it won’t happen: Apple is betting (correctly, in many documented cases) that Verizon customers will finally get tired of waiting and go ahead and switch to AT&T. Apple is also apparently betting (again, correctly, in a plenty of cases) that those Verizon customers who do buy the Droid will be able to see first-hand that it’s not a suitable iPhone alternative unless you’re a hard-core technology geek, making them all the more motivated to buy a Verizon iPhone when it finally happens in 2011 or whenever.

3. Stress relief: AT&T’s network is overburdened by the tens of millions of iPhone users in the U.S., and is either unwilling, unable, or legally prohibited from being able to keep up in terms of building out that network further to accommodate the iPhone’s ever-growing ranks. Offering the iPhone on Verizon’s network, rather than continuing to ask Verizon’s customers to switch to AT&T, would slow down the rate at which AT&T’s network is melting down.

4. Why it won’t happen: Apple knows that bringing the iPhone to Verizon would (in addition to immediately bringing Verizon Droid sales down to right about zero) result in such a massive uptick in voice and data usage on the Verizon network that it would be unlikely to be a better experience than what iPhone users are getting on AT&T now. Also, the AT&T iPhone experience, while mediocre, isn’t nearly as bad as most Verizon customers inexplicably seem to think it is.

5. Message calendar: When’s the last time Apple controlled the iPhone storyline? Ever since the iPhone 4 rollout, the geek media has tried to make the story be all about the non-existent antenna controversy, users have seen the story as being all about inventory shortages, lack of a white model, proximity sensor bugs, and the inevitable class action suit (which Apple will lose) brought by iPhone 3G users who’ve seen their iPhone turned into a useless pile of goop by iOS 4, which they were told to install. One could even argue that Apple lost control of the iPhone message the day that iPhone 4 prototype surfaced on Gizmodo, long before the product was even introduced.

Apple hasn’t had two consecutive positive days of iPhone-related press in months. And there’s only one story that could change all that, a story that would be bigger than all other iPhone related headlines of 2010 combined: bringing the iPhone to other U.S. carriers.

6. Why it won’t happen: When was the last time you saw Steve Jobs bullied into releasing a product he wasn’t ready to release?

7. Can’t we all just get along? Offering a Verizon-compatible iPhone 4 in 2010 would be as simple as building in different antenna and receiver technology designed to work with the Verizon network instead of the AT&T network. Apple’s all-based-covered history suggests that the company may have already built such a product and has been keeping it under lock and key in Cupertino. If so, just release the damn thing already.

8. Why is won’t happen: Have you tried to find an iPhone 4 in a store lately? Have you seen the wait times for it online? The overriding factor here is that Apple is unlikely to open the iPhone 4 up to additional customers so long as it can barely keep up with existing demand. What are the odds that Apple finds a magic wand to fix all of the iPhone 4′s inventory, component, and production issues in time for the 2010 holiday season?

Verizon, to get the iPhone, would gladly throw the Droid in the toilet

The Droid, by any statistical measure, is doing quite well for Verizon in 2010, leading some to question whether the carrier even still wants the iPhone. The answer, in a nutshell, is that Verizon would run the Droid through a shredder to get its hands on the iPhone, and the reason has nothing to do with sales or marketshare or anything you can put a number on. As it turns out, the reason is more straightforward than one might think, and likely too straightforward for geek-leaning tech pundits to comprehend: people actually want the iPhone.

Sure, plenty of people are willing to buy a Droid phone. But outside the statistically insignificant group of uber-geeks who actually prefer the Droid over the iPhone due to the former’s geek-oriented platform, the rest of the general public at large only buys a Droid because they wanted an iPhone – but they’re stubbornly (or in many cases contractually) committed to Verizon, and since they can’t get an iPhone through Verizon, they settle for Verizon’s fake wannabe iPhone known as the Droid. Even though it’s not the phone they want, it’s the one that suits them carrier-wise and/or contract-wise, and so they do what people so often tend to do: they settle for a phone they don’t really want, which they hope will sorta kinda make due as an iPhone stand-in.

Outside of the geekdom, no one buys a Droid because they want a Droid. And Verizon isn’t stupid. Arrogant, amoral, and just willing to saddle the American public with a subpar cellular network as the next carrier, sure, all of the above. But not stupid. Verizon only created the Droid as an attempt to force Apple to open up the iPhone to Verizon (those incapable of understanding that would do well to crawl back into their geek bubble so they can resume pretending the outside non-geek world doesn’t exist), and while the Droid’s sales success as “Brand B” may well end up forcing Apple’s hand, Verizon knows full well that outside the geekdom, mainstream Droid users are about as loyal to the Droid platform as any other buyers of a compromised “Brand B” product are. Verizon continues to lose customers to AT&T by the day, and the reason for those defections are always the same: the customer wanted an iPhone. Not a fake iPhone based on a completely unsuitable geek-fueled operating system named after Star Wars characters, but a real iPhone. In fact there may be no better way of motivating a Verizon customer to switch to AT&T and get a real iPhone, than to first let said customer spend some dissatisfied time with Verizon’s fake one.

Again, Verizon knows this, even if the geek tech pundits and geek tech journalists can’t see it from within the bubble they perennially shield themselves in. It’s why Verizon would drop the entire Droid platform in a proverbial toilet if it meant getting its hands on the iPhone. Fortunately for Verizon, it’s highly unlikely at this point that it would have to kill off the Droid just to get a deal done with Apple for the iPhone when the time comes. But that doesn’t really matter, as the minute the iPhone lands on Verizon, the Droid platform will go by the wayside of its own accord. After all, no one is going to settle for the fake iPhone when they can get their hands on the real thing, at the same price, from the same carrier. In the end, the Droid will go back to being the product that it was always destined to be: the mobile equivalent of Linux, a product of worship for the geekiest fringes of the population, and a mere afterthought for everyone else.

Just ask the presumably millions upon millions of Verizon customers who spend every day searching for any hopeful shred of news about a Verizon iPhone, so much so that Google’s own “popular suggestions” for Google News reveal that more people are searching for “Verizon iPhone” and even “Verizon iPhone release date” than for “Verizon Droid.” Statistics don’t matter when the most popular “Verizon” product happens to be one that’s only offered by rival AT&T.

Why Verizon? iPhone outselling Droid and all Moto phones combined

The iPhone needs Verizon compatibility in order to keep up with the rapidly ascending Droid and the rest of the Android platform, the claim goes. The iPhone’s AT&T exclusivity is causing Verizon customers, even if they would prefer the iPhone, to settle for an Android-based phone available from Verizon instead, the headlines proclaim. But the sales numbers say different. Not only is the iPhone outselling Motorola’s Droid line of phones according to the latest sales numbers, the iPhone is single-handedly outselling all of Motorola’s phones combined, says Apple Insider. In fact, the big picture numbers say that since the iPhone launched three years ago, Motorola’s total number of phones sold has plummeted, thus painting the current success of the Droid and Droid X as perhaps a mere anomaly for a company whose fortunes in the cellphone industry have been dwindling for years.

And before you go blaming Motorola’s misfortunes on the bad economy, the company is now selling a mere one-fifth as many cellphones as it was selling back when the iPhone first launched. With death-spiral numbers like that, it begs the question of just what Verizon was thinking when it chose a flagging partner like Motorola to build its flagship Droid line of phones. The move suggests Verizon was in a panic to come up with an iPhone competitor of any kind, even if that meant saddling up with a dying company like Motorola. It also strongly suggests that Verizon knew the Droid thing wouldn’t be a permanent one, more aimed at forcing Apple to bring the iPhone to the bargaining table under terms that favored Verizon more than they favored Apple itself.

While the Droid is far from the only Android-based phone on the market, Verizon has spent more than a year positioning the phone as its most visible flagship product. But even with all that effort, the iPhone is outselling the Droid and every other Motorola phone combined. It makes you wonder why Verizon isn’t pushing harder to get its hands on the iPhone than it is – or perhaps that’s exactly what’s going on behind the scenes.

iPad and iPhone users unlikely to see Android wallpaper app breach

One of the fundamental differences between the iPhone and Android platforms is that while Apple manually tests and approves every third party iPhone app before it becomes available to users (more than 95% of submitted apps are ultimately approved), the Android “app store” is more like the wild west. And while breaches can and do happen on the Apple side of the fence (on the Fourth of July, a rogue individual posing as an iPhone app developer hacked the App Store to briefly push his own phony eBooks up the App Store sales charts), millions of Android users have now been hit by what reads like a Kindergarten-level hack: a simple wallpaper app available in the Android app store was downloaded by millions before anyone caught on to the fact that the app was rigged to steal users’ data and send it wirelessly back to the unscrupulous app developer.

There’s no way to know for sure that Apple, with its stringent testing and approval process for third party apps for its iPhone, iPad, and iPod touch platforms, would have caught such an app before it went live – but it’s doubtful that it would have gotten past Apple’s testers. While geek-leaning Android users brag about the “open” nature of their platform (in other words, they find it to be more recreationally hackable), the flipside of that “openness” is that malware thinly veiled as a harmless wallpaper app is far more likely to be a problem for Android users than iPhone users. While Apple has approved about a quarter million free and paid third-party apps for the iPhone and iPad, none of them have ever been a free wallpaper app that steals users’ data.

Source: Venturebeat, relayed by @lvdjgarcia via Daring Fireball’s @gruber

iPhone jailbreaking now legal, still means you bought the wrong phone

Hacking your iPhone via a method that such hackers commonly refer to as “jailbreaking” is legal after all, says the U.S. Library of Congress. The process is most commonly carried out by geeks and hackers for the sake of turning their iPhone into something of a blank slate which can then be mutilated into a device which doesn’t function much like an iPhone but rather more like an Android or other hobbyist phone which can loaded up with amateur apps written by the hackers themselves. The word “jailbreaking” was a propaganda term originated in 2007 by said hackers in an attempt to imply that iPhone users who don’t hack their devices are “in jail” due to the fact that they’re limited to choosing from the mere quarter million apps available in the App Store, many of which are free to begin with.

With the debate over the legality of jailbreaking now set aside (unless another ruling body picks up the trail at some point), the debate now shifts back to the more important issue. Neither the government not Apple nor AT&T was ever going to bust down your door and seize your jailbroken phone (unless it’s a prototype you bought from a guy who found it in a bar), so the more important question is whether you should jailbreak your phone. The answer comes not in the form of a “yes” or a “no” but rather along these lines: the iPhone has always been aimed squarely at mainstream consumers, at the expense of the geeks, and Apple couldn’t be any more clear that it has no interest in making the iPhone a hacker-friendly or even particularly geek-friendly platform. In other words, if you have to “jailbreak” your iPhone to get it to do what you want, that’s a pretty clear indication that you bought the wrong phone to begin with. And if you believe that iPhone users who don’t hack their iPhone are “in jail” as far as usage, then you really bought the wrong phone. While the iPhone is the clear cut choice for nearly all mainstream consumers, it’s rarely the right choice for uber-geeks who feel that they have to fundamentally alter the nature of the iPhone just to suit their preferred usage patterns.

While Apple has quietly taken various steps over the years to nudge such hackers off the iPhone platform, the legality of such hackery has always been open to debate – until now. In the greater scheme of things, there’s essentially no mainstream impact to the “jailbreaking” part of the Library of Congress ruling. While some insider pundits who’ve lost track of reality have comically claimed that “most” iPhone users jailbreak their iPhones, common sense says that ninety-something percent of iPhone users have never even heard of jailbreaking, let alone would have any interest in it if they did. So while the sudden clear-cut legality of jailbreaking has no direct impact on the mainstream and never will, it does mean that Apple can’t put a stop to such practice among the statistically tiny percentage of iPhone users who do want to hack their iPhone into oblivion. But while geeks are now legally free to buy an iPhone and hack it to their heart’s delight (not that the lack of clear cut legality was stopping them before), it doesn’t change the fact that it means they’re on the wrong platform. While the Android platform is not recommendable to mainstream consumers over the iPhone under almost circumstances, hackers are one subcategory of users who would likely be much better off considering the Android.

iPhone 4: why Droid users are bailing in favor of it, Verizon or not

If we’ve learned anything this past week, it’s that some folks will go to any length to misguidedly try to help the prospects their favorite technology product. Hard data from a major research firm (which the firm itself has since amusingly attempted to downplay the significance of) shows that current Android users are overwhelmingly lined up to bail from the platform when they go to buy their next iPhone. The data doesn’t show which phone those users will end up with next, but common sense says that most people who’ve bought an Android phone to date have done so because they wanted an iPhone but couldn’t get one from their current carrier so they settled for the closest thing that Verizon (Droid) or Sprint (EVO) had to offer.

But lost in the disturbing fanaticism from the most fervent of Android fanatics, some of whom have shown they’re even willing to make death threats in an attempt to intimidate journalists out of doing their jobs, is the fact that most Android users are perfectly well balanced people who just happened to buy a certain phone that also happens to be championed by a disturbed crowd. One current Android user, who simply identified himself or herself as “S” when reaching out to us, summed up the way in which many Android users feel about their platform, and why so many of them are now lining up to leave:

“Once people actually spend some time with one, it’s a whole different ballgame. I bought one over 6 months ago instead of the iPhone because I wanted to be different, huge mistake! Now that I’ve had more than enough time using it, too much actually, I’m done with Android and I will not buy another. My phone has been plagued with problems from the moment I powered it on. The touch screen is non-responsive in a lot of areas. The software is loaded with glitches. The phone routinely decides to re-boot in the middle of a call or it just freezes up completely. The battery life sucks and the app store is filled with mostly garbage that doesn’t work a lot of the time. People rag on Apple for their strict approval process, I commend them on it, they are assuring the customer will be getting something that works as advertised. With the Android market, it’s like the wild wild west, no law, no order, just chaos. If Android thinks that’s a recipe for success I would beg to differ with them… It’s a recipe for disaster, the only people that will excuse that type of garbage are the hardcore fans. The rest of the people will see the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow was filled with rocks and I bet a lot of people won’t give Android a second shot.”

Apple would still do well to bring the iPhone to Verizon, Sprint, and the other U.S. carriers rather than asking these Droid refugees to have to switch to AT&T when they switch to the iPhone. But the numbers don’t lie, even if Yankee Group is now trying to backpedal from its own findings in a wash of gibberish (then again, if YG has been receiving as many death threats for publishing the research as we have for merely reporting on it, then perhaps they can’t be blamed for trying to backpedal). For the record, this is far from the first time we’ve received death threats from technology fanatics, and we’ve heard from other journalists at other tech publications who’ve received threats to their well being over the years; it just goes to show how thoroughly some people have aligned their own sense of self worth with the success of their favorite technology gadget, and such behavior is obviously not limited to the world of technology. But the above represents a view of how we believe the majority of (non-fanatical) Android users view their buying choice, and drives home further the point of why the iPhone is (for better or worse) the only mainstream-oriented smartphone on the market.

Verizon needs Verizon iPhone more than Apple, after Droid debacle

Three years of talking about a Verizon iPhone, and still nothing to show for it. What we have instead are two facts that are sharply at odds with each other: Verizon customers want a Verizon iPhone, if their continual cries of the past three years are to be believed. And Apple is selling such an overwhelming number of iPhones to the point of extended delays and backorders, even with the limitation of continued AT&T exclusivity, that there wouldn’t be enough iPhone 4 inventory to hypothetically share with Verizon customers anyway. Apple can likely get out of its exclusive AT&T deal any time it wants just to by writing a large enough check, but that still offers no clue as to just when it might finally happen. But if you heard a loud thud off in the distance this week, it was the hopes and aspirations of the competing Android platform, in which Verizon has invested heavily with its Droid and Droid X, coming crashing down into what will apparently soon be a mere pile of rubble. As reported by CNN this week, a Yankee Group study reveals that an astounding four out of five current Android users have no plans to buy another Android phone. And that’s game over.

While Google’s own Android-based Nexus One phone has been canceled due to lack of interest, Verizon’s Android-based Droid has been selling quite well (though not nearly as well the platform’s most overenthusiastic users would like you to believe). But it doesn’t matter how many units you’re selling or how many new customers you’re acquiring if eighty percent of them are so dissatisfied with the platform that they’re already plotting their escape. It’s too soon to predict how many of the Android escapees will end up landing on the iPhone, but what is clear is that most Verizon customers who bought a Droid did so because they wanted an iPhone but weren’t willing to switch to AT&T, and so they settled for the closest thing to an iPhone they could get their hands on. Apparently not close enough, however, as the Android has now been revealed to be the fastest-sinking technology platform since, well maybe, ever.

But if the situation is so obviously dire that external temperature takers can now figure out that most Android users are looking to bail out of the platform when they buy their next phone, then it’s a safe bet that Verizon has already known this for at least a little while. So even as the carrier is dumping inordinate amounts of money in launching its new Droid X phone (and selling plenty of them, to be fair), Verizon likely has its left eye focused on endings the longstanding impasse with Apple and getting its hands on the iPhone to ensure that all these dissatisfied Android users don’t also leave Verizon when they leave the Android platform. In other words, Verizon now needs a Verizon iPhone more than Apple needs a Verizon iPhone. After all, that same CNN report shows that four out of five iPhone users plan to remain with the iPhone, the exact opposite scenario being faced by makers of Android-based phones. The question then becomes what kind of concessions Verizon is willing to make in order to get its hands on the iPhone sooner rather than later. After all, unlike Apple, whose cellular presence lives and dies with the iPhone itself, Verizon’s primary priority is in ensuring that its current customers remain with the carrier; which particular phone they end up buying is secondary to the fact that they simply stay with Verizon.

Not only do we now know that the Android platform is a sinking ship, we also know that Verizon knows it, and perhaps most importantly, Apple now knows that Verizon knows it. The timetable for a Verizon iPhone is still anybody’s guess, but with most current Droid users presumably ending up with an iPhone when it’s all said and done, look for Verizon to try to make a Verizon iPhone happen as soon as possible – and with Apple’s known penchant for driving a hard bargain with potential partners, expect Verizon to be in a much weaker bargaining position than the Droid’s cheerleaders might expect. Here’s more on the Verizon iPhone.

Brutal but true tech headlines: Facebook, Kinect, Droid X, Bumpers, more

- After recent lawsuits, no one is sure who really owns Facebook at this point. As opposed to MySpace, which no wants to admit owning.

- If the Facebook ownership lawsuits do turn out to be valid, then we all learned how to spell “Zuckerberg” for nothing

- Don’t worry, no one at Verizon knows what the “X” stands for in “Droid X” either.

- Microsoft Kinect to sell for $149. Even less, if you’re willing to take a free Kin with it.

- Amazon Kindle sales up in spite of iPad popularity, proving that 30% price cuts never hurt.

- Speaking of the Kindle, it’s surprising that Amazon hasn’t yet gotten around to suing Microsoft for using names like “Kinect” and “Kin” – though in the latter case it may simply be out of pity.

- Next time you manage to get a flashlight app approved with a hidden tethering feature built in, keep it to yourself.

- Why yes, “Bumpers” is in fact the dumbest name for a case ever.

- Question of the day: will BP change its name back to “Amoco” before AT&T changes its name back to Cingular?

iPhone 4 pre-order volume suggests Android momentum is over

Apple has apologized after its online store melted down Tuesday as a result of higher than expected first-day pre-orders for its new iPhone 4, which totaled more than half a million pre-orders in a single day, plus however many users attempted to pre-order the new iPhone and were turned away by the glitches (and reader feedback indicates that the number of unsuccessful pre-orders is also quite high). The overwhelming first day volume strongly suggests that iPhone 4 will be by far Apple’s best selling iPhone model yet, and also suggests that its current 28% of the U.S. smartphone market is set to climb significantly as 2010 progresses. It also signals what is likely the end of any mainstream momentum for the competing Android platform, for two reasons. One is cold hard numbers. The Android platform was only able to amass 9% of the same market even though consumers have been well aware for some time that a major new iPhone upgrade was coming and had thus likely been holding off planned iPhone purchases until that model surfaced. As such, iPhone sales in the second half of 2010 should easily be a whole number multiple larger than they were in the first half of 2010.

The second reason is that the same sales tactics which failed on the Android platform have turned out to be successful when tried on behalf of the iPhone platform. Google attempted to sell the Android Nexus One via online ordering, and that online store failed to the point that Google recently pulled the plug on it. Possible reasons offered by those defending the Android platform included the notion that mainstream consumers wanted to be able to touch, feel, and try out a smartphone before buying it. However, this theory has been disproven now that Apple has experimented with selling iPhone online to customers who have not yet had the chance to see or touch one at retail, and sales were such an overwhelming success that it immediately led to an online meltdown. As it turns out, the real problem with Google’s online smartphone store is that it was pushing an Android phone instead of an iPhone.

While the Android platform isn’t going away any time soon, it’s now more clear than ever that the results of NPD’s small online volunteer survey, which suggested that Android had surpassed the iPhone in sales, was one of the most statistically faulty studies published in perhaps the history of the smartphone industry; whatever momentum Android did have during the late-cycle stages of the previous iPhone model was clearly overblown by those who had reason to benefit by over-representing it. And with six hundred thousand iPhone 4 models sold sight unseen just a few hours yesterday, it’s clear that the momentum in the smartphone industry is still primarily in the hands of Apple, where it has been since 2007.

Could Droid 2-for-1 sale be hint of impending Verizon iPhone?

Verizon is pushing a two-for-one sale on its Droid phone, which despite claims to the contrary on the part of Android platform enthusiasts, was only brought to market in the firstplace because Verizon couldn’t get its hands on the iPhone. While the latest data shows the Android platform to be getting clobbered three-to-one by the iPhone in marketshare, suggesting that Verizon may merely be attempting to artificially boost the user base of a middling performer, the timing of the move is nonetheless interesting. With Apple set to make major iPhone related announcements this week there are no indications that the iPhone is set to immediately become available to Verizon customers. But with Verizon now blowing out inventory of its iPhone knockoff at a monetary loss, it begs the question of why Verizon is suddenly so interested in ridding itself of existing Droid inventory. While Verizon’s backburnering of the Droid in favor of a Verizon iPhone is a near certain eventuality at some point the future, the carrier’s sudden urge to dump Droid inventory and sudden lack of faith in its own ability to sell the Droid without literally giving it away suggest that there may be more afoot come Monday after all.

As Verizon iPhone looms, Verizon and Google make unlikely duo

“Verizon iPhone” has become one of the catch phrases of 2010, as it’s what seemingly everyone (except Google) wants to see happen. Verizon’s customers want access to the iPhone without having to switch to AT&T. Existing iPhone users on AT&T want there competition so that AT&T will finally have to, you know, compete. While the question of whether Apple and Verizon can come together to make it happen continues to linger, Verizon’s customers continue to weigh their options, which include switching to AT&T to get the iPhone they want, continuing to wait for the iPhone to come to Verizon while they tap away on their iPod touch in their other hand, or giving up the ghost and settling for that fake iPhone known as the “Droid” which is available on Verizon already. But as they wait for an answer on whether Apple and Verizon will pair up, perhaps the more reflective question is how Verizon and Google ended up partnering on the Droid, as the two seemingly had wildly different reasons for doing so – and Verizon’s reasons are probably not the best news for Google.

While Google appears to honestly believe that it can return things to a time when consumer technology was controlled by geeks and not by consumers, Verizon has no aspirations beyond profitability; no one is pretending that U.S. cellphone carriers are anything other than what they are. So even as Google pushes its Android cellphone platform and other geek-fueled products like Chrome in an odd attempt to turn the hands of the clock back to a time before non-geek consumers began to take over the market, Verizon could care less about anything so ethereal. In fact it’s likely that the only reason Verizon launched its Google-based Droid phone was in the hopes of having a bargaining chip in its back pocket when iPhone negotiations with Apple finally do get serious. If the Droid sold well, Verizon likely reasoned, then that would motivate Apple to come to the table willing to agree to more favorable terms for the carrier when the time finally came. Verizon may be every bit as amoral, indifferent, and lazily incompetent as every other U.S. carrier, but the company’s not stupid – it watched the iPod and iTunes revolutions happen along with the rest of us, and while Verizon wasn’t willing to agree to Apple’s initially proposed terms back in 2007, it knows the iPhone is the cellphone of the future and has its sights set on getting aboard that train eventually… just not until it get the terms it wants, or reaches the point of desperation before Apple does.

If a Verizon iPhone doesn’t happen by the time of the iPhone 4G launch, it’ll represent a vital time for both Apple and Verizon. Both companies will learn something, as will we, as we watch just how many of Verizon’s holdouts finally bail in favor of AT&T once they hear about the next iPhone’s new features and learn that a Verizon iPhone still isn’t going to be an option for them. One way or the other, the fallout would then set the terms for which company has leverage in the eventual Verizon iPhone negotiations.

If Apple announces that the iPhone is coming to Verizon at the same time it unveils the iPhone 4G, then the conversation will be moot, as the Verizon iPhone will quickly erase any chance that the Droid ever had of becoming a mainstream phone. If it doesn’t happen, then it becomes a matter of which company eventually blinks first: Verizon, from losing too many customers to AT&T, or Apple, from watching the Droid temporarily get just a little too popular. Either way, one of these years were going to look back and wonder what on earth Verizon and Google were doing making a cellphone together and how R2-D2 got involved.

iPhone sees more hope as Verizon-less Android online store closes

Not that most people know what an Android phone looks like anyway, but the fact that you see multitudes of iPhones in use everywhere you go, while rarely seeing an Android except in the hands of a geek, made for a total head scratcher this week when marketshare numbers revealed that the Android is outselling the iPhone by a factor of four to three – a fact that the geek trumpeted as if it were the greatest victory in the history of geekdom. But then later in the week it was revealed that the “marketshare” numbers were instead a mathematically worthless online volunteer survey which told us nothing beyond the fact that Android users were more willing to take an online survey about their phone usage – in other words right back to square one in terms of measuring actual comparative sales of the two phones.

Still, it’s not as if the Android is a Zune-like flop by any means. While there’s no loyalty to it outside the geekdom, some Verizon users who want an iPhone but won’t leave Verizon have in fact turned to the Android as a “fake iPhone” until they can presumably get their hands on a real one later. But now we get the bizarre news that Google is closing the online Android store a mere four months after opening it. The supposed reason? People want to use a cellphone in person before buying it. Funny, then, just how many people feel confident enough in their desire to own an iPhone – and in their own ability to successfully use one – that they buy one without having to test-drive it first. (If you need confirmation, just ask your iPhone using friends how much time they spent playing with one before buying; perhaps you could ask them with a volunteer online survey).

Actually, this online store closing is yet another sign that while the Verizon Droid is doing alright, Google’s own Android Nexus One (we still think they stole that name from the side display on the escalator ride when you’re leaving Space Mountain), isn’t. The earliest sales numbers showed the Verizon Droid doing well but the Google Nexus One to be a potential flop, suggesting that (outside the geekdom of course), the desire to stay with Verizon or avoid AT&T might be the only thing driving sales of Android phones at all. The fact that Google is already giving up on what was supposed to be a major sales channel for Android phones – but one that had nothing to do with Verizon – suggests that that’s still the case. And for Apple it’s further evidence that, outside the geek bubble at least, the Android turns back into a pumpkin the minute the iPhone becomes available on Verizon; any “Android dominance” headlines in the mean time represent little more than further geek wanking on the subject.

Droid Incredible is a clever name

Droid is not something I spend much time writing about; it’s not my platform and I don’t have enough interest in smartphones in general to be have any real desire to keep tabs on any other than the smartphone platform that I use. So while I could write a book about the iPhone, I could care less about the Droid. I say that not out of spite, but to demonstrate that even though I have no interest in the Droid platform (rooting or otherwise), I have to admit that the name of the latest Droid model is a stroke of genius.

Droid Incredible. See, it’s the only way you’ll ever get me to use the words “Droid” and “incredible” in the same sentence. But then that’s the point, isn’t it? Aside from serving up the obvious counter-headlines such as “Droid Incredible isn’t very” and the like, the name is otherwise a smart one. Every time the product gets mentioned in the press, even reviewers and pundits who are trying to be neutral won’t be able to avoid using the word “incredible” in the same sentence as the name Droid. And while it’s a cheap stunt and it’s subliminal, it works; I’m already subconsciously inclined to expect the Droid Incredible to be less crappy than the previous Droid phones just based on the name.

Not that a successful name was all that was standing in between the Droid and mainstream success. Like all too many “consumer technology” products before it, the Droid is a bubble geek’s warped vision of what consumers want – there, I said it – and a clever name like “Incredible” won’t cause the Droid to suddenly have any mainstream appeal beyond those folks who want something that’s vaguely like an iPhone but would rather slit their wrists than switch to AT&T. But the name certainly won’t hurt.

Why we only cover the iPhone

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