Obscure Apple TV goes mainstream with actual Apple-branded televisions

by Bill Palmer

 Apple’s lone television hardware product is so obscure that even most users of other Apple products aren’t aware it exists. Throughout its five or so years on the market, Apple TV has seen massive price reductions, impressive size reductions, a significantly evolved on-screen interface, and more. Yet it suffers from the same problem it did during its early days on the market: no one knows what the hell it does. That could change, however, if rumblings of Apple-branded television sets have any merit to them.

In actuality, AppleTV is a hardware bridge which allows the video content on your computer to find its way onto your existing TV set. Alternately, you can browse the iTunes Store directly from your television in order to rent or buy movies and TV shows. But by the time you finish explaining all of that, most people have stopped paying attention. It also suffers from the odd distinction of being a product you have to pay for so you can use it to pay for television episodes. Contrast that with a simple DVR from your cable or satellite company, which costs $10 a month and allows you to record TV episodes for free – a feature which Apple TV glaringly lacks.

But Apple’s big shot at changing all of this would come in the form of actual Apple-branded television sets. They’d come with “Apple TV” technology built in, but that’s not why people would buy them. They’d sell well because consumers have come to trust that an Apple product will be high quality, elegant, and easier to understand and use than the competition – even though it won’t come cheap.

But once Apple gets all these mainstream folks to buy an Apple television, they’ll quickly find that it has a mainline to the iTunes Store. Suddenly iTunes becomes the new Netflix, or at least a viable rival to it. And in an turnabout, Apple manages to get its diminutive little Apple TV product (and the recurring iTunes revenue which comes with it) by burying it within a giant HD television set.

New AppleTV is tiny, comes with 99 cent TV show rentals from ABC and FOX

Apple has introduced a new AppleTV whose size is about a fourth that of the previous model. Along with it comes TV show rentals in iTunes for 99 cents each, but only from ABC and FOX networks at this time. Interestingly, the new Apple TV doesn’t need an external power brick. Jobs jokingly referred to the AppleTV as a “hobby” (again), in reference to the fact that it’s been little more than a niche product in terms of sales despite the fact that the relatively few users who do own the product seem to love it.

Disappointingly, the new AppleTV has no whiff of DVR recording functionality, which despite Jobs’ claims, does appear to be the missing feature which has kept Apple TV firmly in the “hobby” category for its entire existence.

WWDC odds: iPhone 4G 92%, Apple TV 41%, Verizon iPhone 8%

With Apple’s Steve Jobs set to take the stage in a few hours to introduce the latest and greatest new Apple products, here is our best attempt to handicap the field in terms of announcements:

iPhone 4G: 92% Even if Apple’s next iPhone isn’t ready to ship, there’s seemingly no reason why Jobs wouldn’t go ahead and introduce the product; its specs are likely locked in place by now one way or the other. Just don’t expect it to actually be called iPhone 4G.

Working in its favor: Too much evidence says it’s coming. Also, it’s June, and new iPhones always happen in June.

Working against it: if iPhone OS 4 isn’t ready, will Apple go ahead and serve up the next iPhone without it preinstalled?

Apple TV: 41% The rumors surrounding a new Apple TV are self contradictory at best, but the idea of a totally revamped Apple TV surfacing, after previous iterations flopped so bad as to be thrown under a bus, does make sense.

Working in its favor: WWDC is a developers conference, and the new Apple TV will supposedly run some flavor of iPhone OS 4.

Working against it: throwing another piece of hardware into the WWDC keynote could serve to distract from the new iPhone, which at the moment is Apple’s real priority.

Safari 5: 20% The last rumor to surface out of nowhere, right before an Apple event, is typically either the most accurate or the most harebrained one.

Working in its favor: Safari 4 didn’t exactly knock Safari users’ socks off; might be a good time to start fresh.

Working against it: Safari 5 already?

Verizon iPhone: 8% It might be the most sorely missing product in the entire Apple arsenal, considering how many millions of new users it would attract to the iPhone platform literally overnight. But while it’ll likely happen eventually, today just seems too soon.

Working in its favor: nearly all observers agree that it needs to happen, even those current AT&T iPhone users who would have no desire to switch to Verizon themselves.

Working against it: some ideas are just too good to be true – for now, at least. Reports suggest we’ll see it in time for Christmas 2010.

New Apple TV may be on the way for $99, still no DVR functionality

Apple could soon offer a major revamp of one of the few consumer products it’s launched this past decade that hasn’t found mainstream success, as a report claims that the company will offer a new “Apple TV” set top box unit for just $99, less than half its current price, complete with a new operating system based on the one which currently powers the iPhone and iPad. All of these details sound plausible, as Apple has taken an increased interest in offering widely palatable price tags of late ($99 iPhone, $499 iPad) even when the company could likely have gotten away with higher “early adopter” pricing for new models. And with as much as Apple has tied up in its iPhone OS at this point, it only makes sense that the next Apple TV would run it as well.

However, the new AppleTV apparently won’t include DVR functionality, the ability to record television shows for free and play them back on demand, which represent be a continued embarrassment for Apple as even the lamest of generic ten dollar a month set top boxes from cable companies are able to offer such functionality; it can be argued that lack of DVR functionality is the main reason the Apple TV has remained a low profile niche over the past few years, a period of time in which nearly every one of Apple’s other consumer offerings (the Mac mini excepted) has been a mainstream success.

But even that issue aside, the report is best taken with a grain of salt. The trouble with rumors which sound entirely plausible is that it’s easy for such rumors to be invented by third parties who know it’ll sound believable.