Windows 8 puts Microsoft’s PC and tablet fates in same basket

Windows 8 arrives in time to take on the iPad 3 even as previous iPad tablet competitors circle the bowl. In terms of user headcount, Microsoft easily won the personal computer wars with Windows 1 through 7 but lost the MP3 wars as its Zune failed to make headway against the iPod. Now that its Windows Phone 7 is being kicked around by iPhone and Android, Microsoft is taking one more swing at finding the kind of mobile success it’s long enjoyed on the PC side. And it’s doing so by essentially placing Windows on a touchscreen. WP7 was “Windows” largely in name only, with the interface taking on a life of its own (the handful of WP7 users mostly rave about it, but the “handful” part paints it as a mainstream failure). With MS watching tablets gradually eroding personal computer sales, it’s looking to kill two birds with one stone. However, in this midst of eroding relevance, Microsoft is almost literally taking its desktop OS, dicing it up, and throwing it into a touchscreen salad, abandoning its efforts to build an OS with WP7 which tried to make sense for touchscreens from the ground up…

Microsoft’s problem is other than the highly popular Xbox, the company hasn’t successfully entered a new market in over a decade. The Zune was a flop of embarrassing proportions, being mostly an iPod knockoff which arrived years late (in brown, no less) and didn’t offer anything which anyone cared about. MS had been expecting to be able to capitalize on Xbox success with the Zune, even designating songs in the Zune music store with the same faux-currency used by Xbox gamers. It didn’t work. Meanwhile Apple largely owns the tablet market, with the iPad 2 single handedly outselling all competing tablets combined. The multitude of Android tablets fight each other for the same minority marketshare. The HP TouchPad has been canceled. The BlackBerry PlayBook is about to be. Microsoft’s move, then, turns out to be an attempt to capitalize on the popularity of Windows. It’s an odd gambit…

Then again, Windows is in an odd position. Most of its users don’t appear to care much for it, considering it simply be the de facto operating system which all non-Apple computers happen to come with. And yet Windows has for decades had significant majority marketshare among personal computers. That’s been eroding for years amid Apple’s mainstream Mac resurgence, while hardcore geeks have largely come to favor Linux. But still, most computers in most houses are still running some flavor of Windows. Within a couple years, the new Windows 8 will be the most popular personal computer operating system in terms of user headcount. And Microsoft thinks it can spin that headcount popularity into tablet success, even despite the lack of Windows mindshare…

On the surface, it’s difficult to see where Windows 8 tablets will find their audience. Apple and its iPad 3 will continue to collect nearly all mainstream tablet purchases which haven’t been unduly influenced by geeks. Android will claim tablet sales to geeks along with those members of the mainstream whom the geeks can steer toward their own Android preference. The failures of the TouchPad and PlayBook seem to make clear that the tablet market is a two-horse race with little room for a third wheel. And yet Microsoft thinks it can carve out its own tablet space. Whom Microsoft thinks it’s going to take that marketshare away from is another story. Typically, Apple users tend to stick with Apple products for the long term amid overwhelmingly high user satisfaction marks. In other words, most of those using an iPad 2 now will end up on an iPad 3 later. And the geeks (along with those in the mainstream whose purchases they influence) long ago decided that they’d rather be in bed with Google than Microsoft given the choice, which for them means Android over Windows 8 Mobile. But with overall personal computer usage and sales giving way to tablet share, MS doesn’t have a choice but to try to leverage what Windows clout it has left into the tablet market. By next year, when Windows 8 tablets are up against the iPad 3, we’ll find out whether Microsoft has anything left in the tank or whether Windows 8 tablets are in fact the next lifeless Zune.