Vegas betting odds iPhone comes to Verizon, Sprint, or T-Mobile
June 3, 2010 by Beatweek
Forces are aligning anew which make it seemingly more clear than ever that the iPhone will eventually be available through more than one carrier in the U.S., ranging from AT&T’s desperate attempt to limit data use by new iPhone users, to Verizon’s too-carefully chosen recent words in which said that it didn’t plan to support any Apple products in the “immediate future.” But while there’s no indication that next week’s rollout of the next iPhone will involve anyone but AT&T, here are Beatweek’s best “Vegas style” betting odds that the iPhone finds its way to each of Verizon, Sprint, and T-Mobile by the end of 2010.
Verizon: 67% It’s the obvious choice because it’s the largest U.S. carrier not to have the iPhone, and its users (either by desire or via sheer numbers) have been the loudest about wanting the device.
Working in favor of a Verizon iPhone: Current Verizon users come out of the woodwork to all buy an iPhone. Apple claims dominant majority marketshare of the U.S. smartphone industry within months. Verizon makes lots and lots of money. It makes too much sense for the companies to not do eventually. And Verizon can’t be so deluded as to think that its Droid has a long term mainstream future. Here’s why we think a Verizon iPhone needs to be Apple’s priority.
Working against it: Any Verizon iPhone in 2010 would have to be CDMA, which means either an entirely separate “Verizon iPhone” which wouldn’t be compatible with any other network, or a hybrid iPhone model with multiple receiver technologies inside which would waste precious space which could have otherwise been devoted to a new iPhone feature.
Sprint: 22% It’s the one U.S. carrier whose CEO has a name everyone knows, as Dan Hesse has taken to the airwaves himself to advertise that despite not offering any phones that anyone wants, Sprint does offer the lowest monthly rates on phones that no one wants.
Working in favor of a Sprint iPhone: When your only remaining marketing strategy is to slash your prices, you’re in trouble. The iPhone could be a boon for Sprint, even if the terms of the deal were more favorable to Apple.
Working against it: The Palm Pre was massive flop, but now that HP has acquired Palm, will Sprint give HP a shot at getting the Pre right with the next generation, before going running into the arms of a competitor?
T-Mobile: 14% Outside of its own userbase, most people only know three words about T-Mobile: Catherine Zeta Jones.
Working in favor of and against a T-Mobile iPhone: How many T-Mobile users do you even know? It seems unlikely that Apple’s first iPhone foray outside the arms of AT&T would be with such an obscure carrier – unless it was as a trial run for a future Verizon iPhone launch.
Notes: These odds merely represent our best educated guesses. They add up to slightly more than 100% because we believe there’s a very slight chance that the iPhone could end up on more than one new carrier before the end of the year (although if it’s Verizon, we would expect that to be an exclusive). Only allow these odds to impact your buying decisions to the extent that you agree or disagree with the reasoning; we have no inside information of any kind. Whatever you do, don’t place actual monetary wagers. Seriously, they’re just cellphone carriers.
Oh and by the way, the iPhone expanding to additional carriers would not mean that the iPhone would no longer be available on AT&T, to existing or new customers. We wouldn’t expect that to happen any time soon or far.