Acceleration: iPhone 5S release date in spring 2013, iPhone 6 in fall 2013

Apple appears set to introduce the iPhone 5S in early 2013 with a release date which could come as soon as March, and the iPhone 6 perhaps as soon as the fall of 2013, based on a number of recent changes to the company’s iOS product release strategy and one key piece of insider information. Since its introduction in 2007, Apple has been consistent in launching one new iPhone model per year, originally in the summer and more recently in the fall, while keeping the two previous generation iPhone models around as lower priced options. The company had also been doing the same with its iPad, releasing a new generation each spring. But that pattern changed significantly last month when Apple launched not only the iPad mini offshoot, but also a new fourth generation iPad a mere six months or so after the iPad 3 had taken the stage. This makes clear that Apple is no longer married to its once-a-year hardware update strategy, paving the way for it to do the same with the iPhone lineup. And now there’s buzz that the iPhone 5S may be in limited production already…

There are two key reasons for Apple to make such a move. One is that the iPhone faces intense competition from Samsung’s Android based Galaxy smartphones, which despite suffering from jalopy hardware and subpar apps among other deficiencies, are promoted so heavily by cellular carriers that many customers are misled to believe that Android is the superior choice. Part of Samsung’s strategy is to release new hardware models with abandon, many of them absurdly designed, in the name of throwing things at the wall and seeing what sticks. Apple’s long standing strategy of releasing one massively upgraded iPhone per year, with an external hardware redesign only every other year, seems stagnant in comparison. By shortening up the release cycle that the off-model iPhone 5S comes out a mere half a year after the iPhone 5, Apple creates the appearance of being more aggressive and innovative. Those who pay proper attention know that Apple runs circles around copycatter Samsung in terms of innovation, but in the eyes of many consumers, perception is reality…

The second factor is that while the iPhone 5 was by far the biggest upgrade in iPhone (and smartphone) history in terms of specs and features, the fact that it still looks sorta kinda like an iPhone 4S. That’s given Apple’s most hateful critics the ammunition they need for painting a phony picture of an Apple that has stopped innovating, or isn’t trying, or whatever false Apple narrative they’re spinning this week. By releasing the iPhone 5S a mere six months after the iPhone 5, and in turn signaling that the iPhone 6 is set for a mere six months after that, Apple would take the piss out of the stagnation false narrative. Those tech journalists who get out of bed in the morning looking for ways to slander Apple will continue to do so, but the less ammo Apple gives them to work with, the less effective they’ll be.

Industry buzz has Apple putting the iPhone 5S through limited trial production already. That doesn’t mean it’s going on sale next week, of course. Instead it likely signals that Apple has deemed the production delays of the iPhone 5 unacceptable, as they’ve resulted in limited inventory and multi week delays for customers. By putting the iPhone 5S into trial production now, even perhaps without some of its unfinished components such as the next generation processor, Apple can work any kinks out of the manufacturing process well ahead of the start of full scale production. But the fact that Apple is doing so with the iPhone 5S now points to a launch within months rather than a full year from now. That in turn suggests that Apple’s traditional spring press event, which at this point would be expected to see the launch of the iPad 5, would also mark the release date of the iPhone 5S. That would likely see the iPhone 5 become the $99 iPhone model, and the iPhone 4S become free with contract or eligible upgrade.