iPhone 6 release date: iPhone 5S scenario says you’re not going anywhere for awhile.

Now that the iPhone 5 is out the door, three groups of people are already asking when the iPhone 6 is set for release date. The first are those who won’t be upgrade-eligible for a new iPhone for another half a year, and figure at that point they might be better off simply waiting for the next one. The second are those who aren’t impressed enough with the long list of improvements the iPhone 5 offers and are hoping for a different kind of new iPhone next time. The third are those who already have the iPhone 5 and are so impressed that they’re already wondering when Apple will deliver its round of improvements. The answer for all three groups is the same: if you’re waiting for the iPhone 6, the possibility of an iPhone 5S means that you won’t be going anywhere for awhile. Here’s a look at just how long you might be waiting…

Apple has nearly always gone about twelve months in between new iPhones, with the singular exception of the sixteen month iPhone 4 era which has been chalked up to technical difficulties with the new model. That has since shifted the traditional iPhone summer launch window to the fall. With the iPhone 5 being a major new redesign, it’s likely that Apple will keep it on the market for a full twelve months. So count on no new iPhone before September 2013. The question then becomes what Apple will do at that point. The first iPhone in 2007 lasted only a year, while the second and third iPhones (3G and 3GS) combined to occupy two years with the same body style. Then the iPhone 4 and 4S did the same. If Apple sticks with that pattern, an iPhone 5 will debut in the fall of 2013 which will look just like the iPhone 5 but have all new internal specs and features. If so, what of the iPhone 6?

We’d then be looking at an iPhone 6 sometime in 2014. Sales of the iPhone 4S only remained strong for about nine months, which suggests that Apple is better off not keeping the “S” model around for a full year. That could point to a summer 2014 iPhone 6 launch if Apple gets antsy. If the iPhone 5S does consistently well, Apple could wait until a fall 2014 date to release the iPhone 6. Another train of thought says that since the iPhone 5 does look vaguely similar the iPhone 4/4S despite is massively upgraded internal and external specs, Apple could skip the iPhone 5S and deliver the iPhone 6 in the fall of 2013. But that’s a best case scenario, and not a highly likely one.